Update from the presentation at Nedbank in 2012, with fresh data. Content below.
- Debt – debt clock, per capita, %GDP, Tax/GDP
- Interest – JPY, US, UK, EUR, RSA
- Inflation – JPY, US, EU, RSA
- Markets – LT Nikkei, S&P, US 30yr, JSE
- Other – JPY unemployment, EU inflation, US CPI, Case Schiller HPI
Group of Twenty
The G20 (or G-20 or Group of Twenty) is an international forum for the governments and centrals banks from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, UK, US and EU. The G20 was founded in 1999 and aims to address policies to promote international financial stability.
US Debt Clock
Zoom out – it’s huge, over $62k per citizen, or $168k per taxpayer at $20.3 trillion in total. So their debt is roughly 6x the amount collected from tax revenue. Healthy? Certainly not.
Debt per capita
Which country is most in debt?
Debt as a % of GDP
How big is their debt compared to annual output?
Tax revenue as % of GDP
Japanese interest rate 1970’s to date
More stable and now below zero (by 1/10th of a percent)
US interest rate 1970’s to date
On the up since 2016
UK interest rate 1970’s to date
Came down a lot, just above zero (¼%)
Eurozone interest rate 1990’s to date
Flat-lined at zero
South African interest rate 1990’s to date
More stable recently
Inflation is a general increase in prices, over time
Japanese inflation since the 1960’s
Frequent and continuous periods of deflation
US inflation over more than a century
Also dipped into negative around 2015
Eurozone inflation since the 1990’s
Generally around 2%
South African inflation since the 1970’s
No deflation here…
Nikkei long term chart
Since 1949 – a log chart of the Nikkei 225
S&P long term chart
Since 1928 – a log chart with recessions shaded below
S&P annual returns
Some stats – over the 90 observations there were 60 up years (two-thirds) and 28 down years (on-third), giving a ratio of 2.14:1 up-to-down years, with the biggest up year 47% (in 1931) and the biggest down year -47% (in 1933) and an average annual return of 7.5% (rounded).
If we run the same stats over the last 50 years, there were 37 up and 12 down years, for a 75% vs 25% split, giving 3:1 up-to-down years, with the best return (34%) in 1995 and the worst (-39%) in 2008 and an average annual return of 8.1%. Looking better.
JSE long term chart
US 30yr bond yield
No points for seeing where this is going.
From Tradingeconomics: United States 30 Year Bond Yield was quoted at 2.88 percent on Wednesday October 11. 30 Year Bond Yield in the United States averaged 6.77 percent from 1977 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 15.21 percent in October of 1981 and a record low of 2.11 percent in July of 2016.
Accreditation, with thanks
- Debt clock here
- Inlfation & interest rate data from Tradingeconomics
- S&P & Nikkei long term charts from Macrotrends
- JSE long term data from investing.com